Gas price may have reached a nadir, but when will it rise, and by how much?

The fireworks are over and the driving has begun in earnest. The experts agree that for gas prices, there is really no place to go but up.

There have been indications that prices reached their nadir in recent days.

A gallon of regular in the Bradenton-Sarasota-Venice market on Thursday was flat when compared with Wednesday, at $2.895 per gallon.

In other Florida markets, including Fort Myers-Cape Coral, Fort Lauderdale and Orlando, prices were moving up.

While most experts agree the party might be over for cheaper gas, there is little agreement on how high it might now go or when.

The ambiguity is a testament to just how strange a summer driving season it already has been.

Historically, gas prices climb early in the spring and then again in the summer, prior to the Fourth of July weekend. They then level off shortly after Labor Day.

So far, 2007 has been an aberration, with prices starting their run-up way early and peaking by mid-May. They have been declining ever since with the petroleum pundits claiming each spate of drops could be the last.

They are still trying to read the tea leaves, but are not certain they will have any stronger handle on what pricing might do this month and next.

"I think July and August tend to be a lot more variable. There's not a solid trend. I think that explains some of the mixed messages," said Doug McIntyre, an analyst with the Energy Information Administration.

Our patriotic holiday's mid-week placement only makes things stranger.

"The Fourth of July holiday falling on a Wednesday made it kind of odd. Were more people traveling last weekend, or are more people traveling this weekend? I don't know," McIntyre asked.

The folks at the EIA are hedging their bets that pump prices will remain flat during the next few weeks, then start rising near Labor Day.

But in another camp is Joseph Stanislaw, an independent senior adviser to the Energy & Resources practice of Deloitte & Touche USA LLP.

He thinks we are at the starting gate of a summer rally that could put the per-gallon pump price at $3.50 by the end. If the production situation is complicated by a hurricane, pump prices will easily crash a $4-per-gallon ceiling, Stanislaw said.

"They should be heading back up to the high we saw several weeks ago and possibly drifting higher," Stanislaw said.

Still others believe the petroleum market is overvalued, and that explains why the seasonal price rally has not begun.

With the exception of declines in refinery use, a hurricane or huge spike in demand, they argue that a market correction is likely.

Crude oil is now trading for $72 per barrel.

But by the Citigroup analyst Tim Evans' account, it should be $62.

"There's no shortage of crude oil. And yet the market seems to be pricing in an imminent shortage," Evans said. "In my view the markets are relatively overvalued here, and the prices cannot be sustained."

"Traders, who are buying it, are at a risk because they are basically looking for a shortage where there doesn't seem to be one."

During the weekend, flooding in the Midwest put a domestic refinery -- one that produces about 108,000 barrels per day -- literally under water in Coffeyville, Kan. It was still unclear how much inventory was lost or how long it will be out.

Meanwhile, crude oil inventory levels are at their highest levels since 1998, and the use of refineries so far this month is up to 90.03 percent, or about a 2.7 percent rise in the last month.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries had not even hinted at increasing production levels.

And some analysts suggest that some consumers are finally feeling the pain at the pump enough to act. They point to 93 percent growth in Toyota Prius sales.

"Certainly if you look at the recent automobile sales numbers, in terms of what models are up and what models are down, there has been change," Evans said.

He points out that there has been an increase in options in terms of more fuel-efficient vehicles, while SUV and large truck sales have retreated.

"Maybe that's finally had enough time to impact gasoline demand," Evans said.

How these various factors play out over the summer should be a fascinating dance, given the oddity of pricing so far.

There is an emotional element to both trading in the oil market and spending on gasoline. Those emotions are at their highest as the market rallies and gas prices spike, but they do not always reflect reality, Evans said.

"In my view, current conditions are very similar to what they were last year, when we tried to push the envelope and tried to push the price higher. But ultimately the rally fell," Evans said.

"We are set up to repeat that history, but perhaps not as dramatically."

THE PRICE OF GASOLINE

Regular gas prices, post-Fourth of July

Bradenton-Sarasota-Venice

Thursday $2.895

Wednesday $2.895

Month Ago $3.090

Year Ago $2.894

Florida

Thursday $2.906

Wednesday $2.907

Month Ago $3.082

Year Ago $2.899

Nation

Thursday $2.949

Wednesday $2.949

Month Ago $3.148

Year Ago $2.931

Source: AAA

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