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The Chinese government has begun a concerted campaign of economic
threats against the United States, hinting that it may liquidate its
vast holding of US treasuries if Washington imposes trade sanctions to
force a yuan revaluation.
Two officials at leading Communist Party bodies have
given interviews in recent days warning - for the first time - that
Beijing may use its $1.33 trillion (£658bn) of foreign reserves as a
political weapon to counter pressure from the US Congress.
Shifts in Chinese policy are often announced through key think tanks and academies.
Described
as China's "nuclear option" in the state media, such action could
trigger a dollar crash at a time when the US currency is already
breaking down through historic support levels.
It
would also cause a spike in US bond yields, hammering the US housing
market and perhaps tipping the economy into recession. It is estimated
that China holds over $900bn in a mix of US bonds.
Xia
Bin, finance chief at the Development Research Centre (which has
cabinet rank), kicked off what now appears to be government policy with
a comment last week that Beijing's foreign reserves should be used as a
"bargaining chip" in talks with the US.
"Of course, China doesn't want any undesirable phenomenon in the global financial order," he added.
He
Fan, an official at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, went even
further today, letting it be known that Beijing had the power to set
off a dollar collapse if it choose to do so.
"China
has accumulated a large sum of US dollars. Such a big sum, of which a
considerable portion is in US treasury bonds, contributes a great deal
to maintaining the position of the dollar as a reserve currency.
Russia, Switzerland, and several other countries have reduced the their
dollar holdings.
"China is unlikely to follow suit
as long as the yuan's exchange rate is stable against the dollar. The
Chinese central bank will be forced to sell dollars once the yuan
appreciated dramatically, which might lead to a mass depreciation of
the dollar," he told China Daily.
The threats play
into the presidential electoral campaign of Hillary Clinton, who has
called for restrictive legislation to prevent America being "held
hostage to economic decicions being made in Beijing, Shanghai, or
Tokyo".
She said foreign control over 44pc of the US national debt had left America acutely vulnerable.
Simon
Derrick, a currency strategist at the Bank of New York Mellon, said the
comments were a message to the US Senate as Capitol Hill prepares
legislation for the Autumn session.
"The words are
alarming and unambiguous. This carries a clear political threat and
could have very serious consequences at a time when the credit markets
are already afraid of contagion from the subprime troubles," he said.
A
bill drafted by a group of US senators, and backed by the Senate
Finance Committee, calls for trade tariffs against Chinese goods as
retaliation for alleged currency manipulation.
The
yuan has appreciated 9pc against the dollar over the last two years
under a crawling peg but it has failed to halt the rise of China's
trade surplus, which reached $26.9bn in June.
Henry
Paulson, the US Tresury Secretary, said any such sanctions would
undermine American authority and "could trigger a global cycle of
protectionist legislation".
Mr Paulson is a China
expert from his days as head of Goldman Sachs. He has opted for a
softer form of diplomacy, but appeared to win few concession from
Beijing on a unscheduled trip to China last week aimed at calming the
waters.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/08/07/bcnchina107a.xml
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