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Political
Interference with Government Climate Change Science
Testimony
of
James
E. Hansen
to
Committee
on Oversight and Government Reform
United
States House of Representatives
19
March 2007
2
Political
Interference with Government Climate Change Science
Contents
1.
Rationale of Presentation
2.
My Experience
A.
White House Approval and Editing of Congressional Testimony
B.
Communication Constraints by NASA Office of Public Affairs
C.
Executive Control of Purse Strings
3.
Practical Impact of Political Interference with Climate Change
Science
A.
Communication of Climate Change Threat
B.
Delay of Action: Potential Economic Benefits Become Costs
C.
Moral and Legal Burdens
4.
Issues and Questions Raised
A.
Propriety of Filtering Congressional Testimony
B.
Politicization of Public Affairs Office
C.
Executive Control of the Purse Strings
5.
Summary Implications of Climate Change Science
A.
Status of Science
B.
Impact of Political Interference on Quality of Decision Making
C.
Recommendations to Policy-Makers
3
1.
Rationale of Presentation
I
provide this testimony because I believe that my experiences
illustrate flaws that have
developed
in the functioning of our democracy. And I will use part of my
presentation to
compare
the benefits of early actions to defuse the building climate crisis
with the dangers of
continued
business-as-usual fossil fuel emissions.
I
claim no expertise in legal matters or politics. My approach is to
try to imagine how
our
forefathers would have viewed our present situation and how they may
have dealt with the
climate
change issue. A well-informed educated public was and is a premise of
our democracy;
it
is easy for me to imagine Benjamin Franklin presenting an objective
discussion of climate
change
that would be thoughtfully received. Another fundamental tenet of our
democracy,
separation
of powers within our government, with checks and balances, is brought
into focus by
the
climate crisis.
2.
My Experience
A.
White House Approval and Editing of Congressional Testimony
During
the past 25 years I have noticed an increase in the degree of
political interference
with
scientific testimony to Congress. My first testimony was to a United
States House of
Representatives
hearing organized by Representative Al Gore in early 1982. I do not
recall
whether
White House approval of that testimony was required, but in any case
there were no
objections
to the content of that testimony1.
I
testified to the United States Senate about climate change at least
three times in the
period
1984-1988. These testimonies required approval by the White House
Office of
Management
and Budget (OMB). I did not have direct contact with people in OMB,
rather
NASA
Headquarters (usually the NASA Office of Legislative Affairs) was an
intermediary
between
the scientist (me) and OMB. In one case I strongly objected to
changes that OMB made
to
my testimony, because I felt that the changes substantially altered
the conclusions of our
research
and served to reduce concern about possible human-made climate
change.
In
this case the NASA intermediary in the Office of Legislative Affairs
volunteered the
information
that I had the right to testify as a private citizen and present my
testimony with the
wording
that I preferred. I took advantage of that right, testifying as a
private citizen, and never
felt
any repercussions for doing so.
In
1989, after climate change had become of greater public and political
concern, the
constraints
on communication via congressional testimony became stricter, at
least in my
experience.
When I submitted written testimony to NASA Headquarters in 1989 for
presentation
to
a Senate Committee chaired by Senator Gore, my secretary was
instructed by NASA
Headquarters
to send the original typescript to NASA Headquarters so that they
could insert
several
changes that were required by the White House OMB. When I was
informed of this I
was
angered, intercepted the typescript, and insisted that any changes
had to be made in my
office.
Several acceptable rewordings were negotiated (NASA Headquarters
being the
1
In that testimony I summarized three papers published with
colleagues in 1981, the principal paper being one in
Science
(Reference 1) in which we showed that, when Southern Hemisphere data
were included, the Earth had
warmed
by about 0.4°C (0.7°F) over the previous century. The second
paper showed that non-CO2 gases
caused a
climate
forcing almost as large as that of CO2.
The third paper showed that sea level had increased about 12 cm in
the
preceding 100 years and suggested for the first time, I believe, that
thermal expansion of ocean water accounted
for
a significant fraction of sea level rise.
4
intermediary
between OMB and me), but three changes2
that OMB required were unacceptable
to
me. Unlike the case earlier in the 1980s, I was told by NASA
Headquarters that I needed to
accept
the changes or not testify. I agreed to accept the changes, but I
then sent a fax to Senator
Gore
requesting that he ask me during the hearing about those specific
statements, because I
wanted
to make clear that they were the opinion of the White House OMB, not
my opinion.
(This
exchange was briefly shown in the documentary “An Inconvenient
Truth”.)
Review
and editing of scientific testimony by the White House OMB seems to
now be an
accepted
practice. The explanation I was given for why budgetary people should
be allowed to
review
and edit scientific testimony was that NASA plans need to be
consistent with the
Administration’s
budget. Discussion with NASA personnel in Legislative Affairs and in
Science
program
offices suggests that people at NASA Headquarters believe that NASA
must “play ball”
with
OMB if it wishes to be treated well in its annual funding. It seems
to me that this raises
constitutional
questions, because it is my understanding that the Constitution
provides the power
of
the purse strings to Congress, not the Executive Branch of our
government. I return to this
issue
in Section 4 below, after discussing in Section 3 the practical
impacts of this political
interference
in climate science.
B.
Communication Constraints by NASA Office of Public Affairs
The
Office of Public Affairs in science agencies such as NASA exists for
the purpose of
helping
communicate scientific results to the public. During my career I have
noticed an
increasing
politicization of Public Affairs at the Headquarters level, with a
notable effect on
communication
from scientists to the public. I refer not to the professionals in
the Public Affairs
offices
at the NASA science centers, but to Public Affairs at NASA
Headquarters, which is in
charge
overall and is generally headed by a political appointee.
Interference with
communication
of science to the public has been greater during the current
Administration than
at
any time in my career. As I was quoted on the 2006 calendar of the
Freedom Forum “In my
more
than three decades in government, I have never seen anything
approaching the degree to
which
information flow from scientists to the public has been screened and
controlled as it has
now.”
The
effect of the filtering of climate change science during the current
Administration has
been
to make the reality of climate change less certain than the facts
indicate and to reduce
concern
about the relation of climate change to human-made greenhouse gas
emissions. For
example,
one of my staff members submitted a story based on his paper that
found the ocean was
less
effective at removing human-made CO2
than had previously been estimated. Public
Affairs
decided
that this story should not be provided to the media. Another staff
member had to attend
2
The three changes were: (1) addition of a caveat after my
discussion of expected climate changes due to increasing
greenhouse
gases that “these changes should be viewed as estimates from
evolving climate models and not as
reliable
predictions”; this change negated much of the testimony, in which I
argued, on heuristic grounds with
support
from models, that global warming would lead to increases in the
extremes of the hydrologic cycle, i.e., more
intense
heat waves and droughts but also heavier rainfalls and floods; (2)
addition of a suggestion that the increases
of
greenhouse gases could be partly or largely due to natural processes;
again this was misleading because we were
aware
that the greenhouse gas increases are primarily of human origin; (3)
addition of a statement that “any policy
options
which should reduce atmospheric CO2
growth rates should make good economic and environmental
sense,
independent
of concerns about an increasing greenhouse effect; although the
meaning of this statement was unclear,
it
seemed to say that the greenhouse effect (global warming) should not
have any effect on policies. Although some
other
scientists agreed with the White House OMB edits to my testimony
(Reference 2), it was supposed to be my
testimony.
5
a
‘practice’ press conference, in which he was asked whether
anything could be done to stem
accelerating
loss of sea ice. When he suggested “we could reduce emissions of
greenhouse
gases”
he was told sternly “that’s unacceptable!”, with the
explanation that scientists are not
allowed
to say anything that relates to policy
An
important example of political interference with the public’s right
to know has
occurred
with press releases relating to global warming science that have gone
from NASA
Headquarters
to the White House for review, approval or disapproval, and editing.
That this
practice
is inappropriate, if not illegal, is indicated by the response from
NASA Public Affairs
when
I made note of this practice in a public talk (Reference 3). The NASA
Assistant
Administrator
for Public Affairs traveled from Headquarters to Goddard Space Flight
Center to
deliver
an oral “dressing down” of the professional writer at Goddard
Public Affairs who had
informed
me about this practice. The writer was admonished to “mind his own
business”. This
dressing
down was delivered in front of the writer’s boss. Such reprimands
and instructions are
delivered
orally. If NASA Headquarters Public Affairs is queried by media about
such abuses,
they
respond “that’s hearsay!”, a legal term that seems to frighten
the media. My suggestion for
getting
at the truth is to question the relevant participants under oath,
including the then NASA
Associate
Administrator for Earth Sciences, who surely is aware of who in the
White House was
receiving
and reviewing press releases that related to climate change.
Communication
constraints by NASA Headquarters Public Affairs came to light in
December
2005, after some of the instructions by Headquarters Public Affairs
were written down
in
memos and e-mails. This occurred shortly after my “Keeling” talk
(Reference 4) at the
American
Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco and the release within a
week thereafter
of
our (GISS, Goddard Institute for Space Studies) analysis of global
temperature, which showed
record
global temperature in 2005. NASA Headquarters Public Affairs was
furious about the
media
attention, their anger being sparked by a call from the White House
objecting to the
publicity
on global warming. The consternation, expressed during several
three-way telecons
between
Headquarters-GSFC/Greenbelt-GISS/New York, was described by a
participant as a
“shit-storm”.
The upshot was a new explicit set of constraints on me, including
requirement that
any
media interviews be approved beforehand and that Headquarters have
the “right of first
refusal”
on all interviews, that I provide my calendar of all planned talks
and meetings, and that I
obtain
prior approval for every posting on the GISS web site.
These
orders were delivered orally, as usual, as was a threat of “dire
consequences” if I
did
not comply. However, a new young political appointee at Public
Affairs, apparently was not
well-schooled
in the rules and left a paper trail, including a description of a
specific instance in
which
Public Affairs barred me from speaking to NPR, offering the Associate
Administrator in
my
stead. These indiscretions were perhaps the primary reason for his
departure from NASA,
rather
than the fact that his resume failed to show that he was one course
short of the university
degree
that he claimed. However, he was not acting on his own or affecting
communication with
the
public in a way contrary to the wishes of his bosses. The paper trail
that he left showed that
the
problem starts at the top, the decision to bar me from speaking with
NPR being made “on the
ninth
floor” of Headquarters.
It
became clear that the new constraints on my communications were gong
to be a real
impediment
when I was forced to take down from our web site our routine posting
of updated
global
temperature analysis. At that time I decided to write down the
constraints that I had been
placed
under and to inform the media. An article appeared in the New York
Times by Andy
6
Revkin,
who had the courage to go with a story that had a limited paper
trail. To NASA’s credit,
the
Administrator promptly issued an unequivocal statement in support of
scientific openness.
However,
in no way has the impact of deception of the public about climate
change been
undone
by NASA’s forthright decision in favor of scientific openness.
There remains a vast gap
between
what is understood about global warming, by the relevant scientific
community, and
what
is known about global warming by those who need to know, the public
and policy-makers.
This
gap should be of concern to the Committee on Oversight and Government
Reform, because
it
relates in part to ways in which the functioning of our government is
departing from the
intentions
of our forefathers. Of special relevance is the usurpation of
congressional prerogatives
by
the executive branch, especially via increased control of the purse
strings.
C.
Executive Control of Purse Strings
The
American Revolution launched the radical proposition that the
commonest of man
should
have a vote of equal weight to that of the richest, most powerful
citizen. Our forefathers
devised
a remarkable Constitution, with checks and balances, to guard against
the return of
despotic
governance and subversion of the democratic principle for the sake of
the powerful few
with
special interests. They were well aware of the difficulties that
would be faced, however,
placing
their hopes in the presumption of an educated informed citizenry, an
honestly informed
public.
I
have sometimes wondered how our forefathers would view our situation
today. On the
positive
side, as a scientist, I like to imagine how Benjamin Franklin would
view the capabilities
we
have built for scientific investigation. Franklin speculated that an
atmospheric “dry fog”
produced
by a large volcano had reduced the sun’s heating of the Earth so as
to cause unusually
cold
weather in the early 1780s, as he noted that the enfeebled solar rays
when collected in the
focus
of a “burning glass” could “scarce kindle brown paper”. As
brilliant as Franklin’s insights
may
have been, they were only speculation as he lacked the tools for
quantitative investigation.
No
doubt Franklin would marvel at the capabilities provided by
earth-encircling satellites and
super-computers
that he could scarce have imagined.
Yet
Franklin, Jefferson and the other revolutionaries must be distraught
by recent
tendencies
in America, specifically increasing power of special interests in our
government,
concerted
efforts to deceive the public, and arbitrary actions of government
executives that arise
from
increasing concentration of authority in a unitary executive, in
defiance of the aims of our
Constitution’s
framers. These tendencies have dramatic impact on the global warming
story.
Last
year, about one month after the media hubbub about NASA Public
Affairs’
censoring
of science, the mission of the National Aeronautics and Space
Administration (NASA)
was
altered surreptitiously by executive action and the budget for Earth
Science Research and
Analysis
was slashed retroactively to the beginning of the fiscal year, thus
subverting
constitutional
division of power. Many people are aware that something bad happened
to the
NASA
Earth Science budget last year, yet the severity of the cuts and
their long-term
implications
are not universally recognized. In part this is because of a stealth
budgeting
maneuver,
which I suspect most members of Congress are not aware of.
When
annual budgets for the coming fiscal year are announced, the
differences in growth
from
the previous year, for agencies and their divisions, are typically a
few percent. An agency
with
+3 percent growth may crow happily, in comparison to agencies
receiving +1 percent.
Small
differences are important because every agency has fixed costs (civil
service salaries,
7
buildings,
other infrastructure), so new programs or initiatives are strongly
dependent upon any
budget
growth and how that growth compares with inflation.
When
the administration announced its fiscal 2007 budget, NASA science was
listed as
having
typical changes of 1 percent or so. However, Earth Science Research
and Analysis
actually
had a staggering reduction of about 20 percent from the 2006 budget
that Congress had
passed.
How could that be accomplished? Simple enough: reduce the 2006
research budget
retroactively
by 20 percent! One-third of the way into fiscal year 2006, NASA Earth
Science
was
told to go figure out how to live with a 20-percent loss of the
current year’s funds.
The
Earth Science budget was further tightened in 2007 and is almost a
going-out-ofbusiness
budget.
From the taxpayers’ point of view it makes no sense. An 80 percent
budget
must
be used mainly to support infrastructure (practically speaking, you
cannot fire civil
servants;
buildings at large facilities such as Goddard Space Flight Center
will not be bulldozed
to
the ground; and the grass at the centers must continue to be cut).
But the budget cuts wipe off
the
books most planned new satellite missions (some may be kept on the
books, but only with a
date
so far in the future that no money needs to be spent now), and
support for contractors, young
scientists,
and students disappears, with dire implications for future
capabilities.
Bizarrely,
this is happening just when NASA data are yielding spectacular and
startling
results.
Two small satellites that measure the Earth’s gravitational field
with remarkable
precision
found that the mass of Greenland is now decreasing by about 150 cubic
kilometers of
ice
per year and West Antarctica by a similar amount. The area on the ice
sheets with summer
melting
has increased markedly, major ice streams (portions of the ice sheet
moving most rapidly
toward
the ocean and discharging icebergs) have increased doubled in flow
speed, and the area in
the
Arctic Ocean with summer sea ice has decreased 20 percent in the last
25 years.
One
way to avoid bad news: stop the measurements! Only hitch: the first
line of the
NASA
mission is “to understand and protect our home planet.” Maybe
that can be changed to
“…protect
special interests’ backside.”
I
should say that the mission statement used to
read “to understand and protect our home
planet.”
That part has been deleted—a shocking loss to me, as I had been
using that phrase to
justify
speaking out about the dangers of global warming. The quoted mission
statement had
been
constructed in 2001 and 2002 via an inclusive procedure involving
representatives from the
NASA
Centers and e-mail interactions with NASA employees. In contrast,
elimination of the
“home
planet” phrase occurred with no fanfare in a spending report
delivered to Congress in
February
2006, the same report that retroactively slashed the Earth Science
research budget. In
July
2006 I asked dozens of NASA employees and management people
(including my boss) if
they
were aware of the change. Not one of them was. Several expressed
concern that such
management
changes by fiat would have a bad effect on organization morale.
These
budgetary goings-on in Washington were noted in editorials of The
Boston Globe:
“Earth
to NASA: Help!” (June 15, 2006) and “Don’t ask; don’t ask”
(June 22, 2006), both
decrying
the near-termination of Earth measurements. Of course, the Globe
might be considered
“liberal
media”. But it is conservatives and moderates who should be most
upset, and I consider
myself
a moderate conservative. When I was in school we learned that
Congress controlled the
purse
strings; it is in the Constitution. But it does not really seem to
work that way, not if the
Administration
can jerk the science budget around the way they have. It seems more
like David
Baltimore’s
“Theory of the Unitary Executive” (the legal theory that the
president can do pretty
much
whatever he wants) is being practiced. My impression is that
conservatives and moderates
would
prefer that the government work as described in the Constitution, and
that they prefer to
8
obtain
their information on how the Earth is doing from real observations,
not from convenient
science
fiction (see Reference 5).
3.
Practical Impact of Political Interference with Climate Change
Science
A.
Communication of Climate Change Threat
There
is little doubt that the Administration’s downplaying of evidence
about global
warming
has had some effect on public perception of the climate change issue.
The impact is to
confuse
the public about the reality of global warming, and about whether
that warming can be
reliably
attributed to human-made greenhouse gases.
However,
I believe that the gap between scientific understanding of climate
change and
public
knowledge about the status of that understanding probably is due more
to the impact of
special
interests on public discourse, especially fossil fuel special
interests, rather than political
interference
with climate change science.
I
have no knowledge of whether special interests have had a role in
political interference
with
climate change science. Nevertheless, it is my personal opinion that
the most fundamental
government
reform that could be taken to address climate change and government
accountability
in
general would be effective campaign finance reform.
B.
Delay of Action: Potential Economic Benefits Become Costs
The
effect of leaving the public confused about the reality of
human-caused climate
change
is to delay actions needed to put the nation and the world on an
energy pathway that
would
preserve creation, the planet that civilization developed on. If
these actions are taken
early,
changes can be phased in gradually with great economic benefit to the
nation.
Delay,
on the other hand, means that changes will need to be made rapidly
and thus
inefficiently.
Less appropriate technologies must be, in effect, “bull-dozed”
before they are
“worn
out”, and our industry will not be ready with more appropriate
technology. Early action
would
provide our industry a long-term competitive advantage.
An
example is provided by vehicle efficiency. The 30% improvement in
automobile and
light
truck efficiencies proposed by California, if adopted nationally,
would result in an annual
reduction
in oil import requirements of more than $100 billion dollars, with
oil at $50 per barrel
(Reference
6). This is opposed by United States automobile manufacturers and oil
companies,
who,
in my opinion, seem more concerned with their short-term profits than
with the best longterm
interests
of the nation, the planet, and future generations.
C.
Moral and Legal Burdens
The
most troubling impact of the political interference with climate
change science is the
potential
burden that we leave for our children and grandchildren. The
Administration
continually
points to China, which will soon pass the United States as the
largest emitter of CO2,
as
a reason for minimalist action by the United States on greenhouse gas
emissions.
However,
the science unambiguously shows that climate change is driven by
cumulative
emissions,
not current emissions. Cumulative emissions of the United States are
more than three
times
that of any other nation (Reference 7) and will continue to be the
largest for decades.
Furthermore,
rather than negotiating on the terms of the international accord
designed to reduce
emissions
in developed countries and slow the growth of emissions in developing
nations, the
United
States walked away, thus preventing effective implementation.
9
One
consequence is that, as indigenous people must abandon their land to
rising seas or
shifting
climatic zones, they will be well aware of the principal source of
the problem. Thus if
we
continue on this course, failing to effectively address climate
change, we will leave a heavy
moral
burden, and perhaps a legal burden, for our children.
If
the science and communication of the science were not interfered
with, and if our
children
were allowed to express a preference, would they choose the current
path of our
government
for energy and climate? I think not. Even with knowledge that
fundamental
changes
will be needed to phase into a different energy course, I am
confident they would want
the
United States to play a leadership role.
4.
Issues and Questions Raised
A.
Propriety of Filtering Congressional Testimony
What
is the basis, what is the rationale, by which Congress allows the
Administration to
filter,
edit and alter scientific testimony of government scientists
delivered to Congress? Is this
behavior
a right that is granted to the Executive branch by the Constitution
or authorized by other
official
instruments?
Presumably
there is basis for this practice or it would not be tolerated.
However, based
on
my experiences, discussed in part above, it seems to me that the
practice is detrimental to the
functioning
of our democracy. The taxpayers foot the bill for most of the
research by
government
and academic scientists. Thus the public should not be denied the
full benefit of
knowledge
that derives from that research.
B.
Politicization of Public Affairs Office
The
problem stems from the fact that Public Affairs offices at the
headquarters level of
the
science agencies are headed by political appointees. The inevitable
result is a pressure for
science
to show the answers that the party in power prefers to see. This is
true independent of
which
party is in power. Any such pressure contradicts the nature of
scientific investigation,
which
relies on unprejudiced evaluation of all alternatives.
The
best solution to this problem would be to have the Public Affairs
offices
professionally
staffed, with no political appointees. If this is not possible, they
should be
renamed
as Offices of Propaganda.
C.
Executive Control of the Purse Strings
When
I came to NASA 40 years ago as a 25 year old post-doc it seemed to me
that the
NASA
approach was to focus on excellence in science and engineering. It
was expected that
Congress
and the White House would provide funding based on merits. Perhaps I
was naïve.
But
I did not get any sense that NASA was working for the White House.
There has been a huge
change
between then and now.
The
Executive branch seems to be exercising greater control in the
functioning of our
government,
in ways that our forefathers probably did not imagine and almost
certainly would
not
approve. This includes White House control of testimony to Congress,
White House control
of
information that scientists provide to the public through Public
Affairs, and most decidedly
through
control of the purse strings.
Control
of the purse strings is the most powerful of the tools in the hands
of the
Executive
branch. It has a tremendous effect on information that is provided to
Congress and to
10
the
public. You may think that a government scientist can easily exercise
his right of free
speech,
to speak as a private citizen as I am today. But how many will do so,
when the power of
the
purse strings is held by the Executive branch? You may think that
there are plenty of
government
scientists who are confident of their ability to get a job elsewhere
or would not mind
being
sent off to pasture. But it is not so simple as that. With the purse
strings the Executive
branch
holds hostage your “children”, your science programs, and your
colleagues’ livelihood. It
is
not easy to face your colleagues when they feel that you are damaging
their support.
5.
Summary Implications of Climate Change Science
A.
Status of Science
Progress
in climate science during the past several years has increased our
understanding
of
how sensitive the Earth’s climate is to forcings, such as
human-made emission of gases into
the
atmosphere by burning fossil fuels. This understanding derives
especially from the Earth’s
history,
which shows how the Earth responded to changing forcings in the past
(Reference 7).
The
data show that the Earth’s climate has considerable inertia, due
especially to the
massive
oceans and ice sheets. Yet the climate can change dramatically on
century time scales,
and
even on decadal and shorter time scales.
The
evidence confirms a predominance of positive feedbacks that amplify
climate
response
on short time scales, these feedbacks including increasing
atmospheric water vapor and
decreasing
sea ice cover as the planet becomes warmer. However, the data also
indicate the
presence
of feedbacks on decadal, century and longer time scales. These
feedbacks include
movement
of forests and other vegetation poleward as the climate warms,
increased net emission
of
greenhouse gases from the ocean and biosphere, and decrease in the
area and brightness of ice
sheets.
The
predominance of positive feedbacks, along with the inertia of the
oceans and ice
sheets,
has profound practical implications. It means that if we push the
climate system hard
enough
it can obtain a momentum, it can pass tipping points, such that
climate changes continue,
out
of our control. Unless we begin to slow down the human-made climate
forcings, there is the
danger
that we will create a different planet, one far outside the range
that has existed in the
course
of human history (References 7, 8, 9).
It
is because of these climate feedbacks and the inertia of the ocean
and ice sheets that the
global
warming problem differs fundamentally from the problem of
conventional air pollution
(Reference
12). By the time that the public can clearly see the existence of
climate change, there
is
momentum in the system for a great deal of additional change. As a
result we are probably
already
very near, if not beyond, the dangerous level of interference with
atmospheric
composition.
I have discussed the possibility of drawing down atmospheric CO2
by burning
biofuels
in power plants and capturing and sequestering the CO2
(Reference 13). However, by
far
the most effective actions at this time would be to slow current
emissions to the atmosphere,
while
better understanding and improved technologies are developed.
B.
Impact of Political Interference on Quality of Decision Making
Political
interference in transmittal of information about climate change
science to the
public
has deleterious effects on the quality of decision making. Science
cannot make decisions
for
the public. The public and policy makers must consider all factors in
making decisions and
11
setting
policy. But these other factors should not influence the science
itself or the presentation
of
science to the public.
One
consequence of political interference is that the public is not yet
well-informed about
the
nature and scale of actions that will be needed to address climate
change. This is important
because
it will take time for the public and their policy makers to
thoughtfully consider these
matters.
As an example of the nature and scale of actions that I believe will
be needed to address
climate
change, I list in the following section some specific recommendations
that I discussed at
a
recent presentation in Washington (Reference 13).
C.
Recommendations to Policy-Makers
1.
Moratorium on new coal-fired power plants until the technology for
CO2 capture
and
sequestration
is available. The reason for this is that about a quarter of CO2
emissions will
remain
in the air “forever”, i.e., more than 500 years. As a result, I
expect that it will be realized
within
the next decade or so, that all power plants without sequestration
must be “bull-dozed”
before
mid-century. Thus it makes sense to give high priority to energy
efficiency and
renewable
energies in the near-term.
2.
A gradually but surely increasing price on carbon emissions is needed
to drive energy
efficiency
improvements and innovative technologies. The results will include
high-tech highpay
jobs,
technologies that will increase our exports and improve our balance
of payments,
improved
energy independence and national security. It will require a strong
leader to level with
the
public that a tax on carbon emissions is needed. If this is
introduced along with technology
investments,
the public should be provided options that will reduce their carbon
emissions and
limit
their taxes. The government should avoid trying to specify the
technology “winners”.
3.
Energy efficiency standards are needed in addition to a price on
carbon emissions.
Architects
and engineers agree that the technology exists now for new and
renovated buildings to
produce
50 percent less CO2 than
existing buildings, and emissions can be further reduced in the
future.
National adoption of the proposed California vehicle efficiency
standards would make a
huge
reduction in our oil and energy needs, as discussed above. Barriers
to efficiency, such as
the
fact that utilities make greater profits if they sell more energy,
rather than if they encourage
efficiency,
need to be removed.
4.
Congress should request the National Academy of Sciences to carry out
a study on the
stability
of ice sheets, which is likely to be a driver in determining what
level of global warming
constitutes
“dangerous” interference with the climate system (Reference 11).
The United
Nations
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change already provides periodic
reports of the
science,
at about 6-year intervals, but the problem is too urgent and
important for the country to
rely
solely on such assessments. The National Academy of Sciences was
established by
Abraham
Lincoln in part with just such “Service to the Nation” in mind.
5.
Congress needs to address the following threats to American
democracy: (1) the
public’s
right to unfiltered information, including congressional testimony
free of political
interference,
and Public Affairs (public information) offices that are staffed by
professionals not
by
political appointees, (2) the absence of effective campaign finance
reform.
As
long as these threats to democracy are not addressed it will be
difficult to deal with
human-made
climate change successfully. The Committee on Government Oversight
and
Reform
seems an appropriate place to raise these issues.
12
References
1.
Hansen, J., D. Johnson, A. Lacis, S. Lebedeff, P. Lee, D. Rind, G.
Russell, Climate impact of increasing
atmospheric
carbon dioxide, Science 213, 957-966, 1981.
2.
Kerr, R A., Hansen vs. the world on the greenhouse threat Science
244 1041-1043, 1989.
3.
Hansen, J., Iowa Talk (Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference: A
discussion of humanity’s Faustian Climate
Bargain
and the payments coming due), 2004,
www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/dai_complete.pdf
4.
Hansen, J., Keeling Talk (Is there still time to avoid “dangerous
anthropogenic interference” with global climate?
A
tribute to Charles David Keeling), 2005,
www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/keeling_talk_and_slides.pdf
5.
Hansen, J., Swift boating, stealth budgeting, & unitary
executives, World Watch 19 (Nov/Dec), 25-31, 2006.
6.
Hansen, J., D. Cain, R. Schmunk, On the road to climate stability:
the parable of the secretary, 2005,
www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/ateampaper_14nov2005.pdf.
7.
Hansen, J., M. Sato, P. Kharecha, G. Russell, D. Lea, M. Siddall,
Trace gases and climate change, Philosophical
Transactions
of the Royal Society A, in press, 2007.
8.
Hansen, J, and 46 co-authors, Dangerous human-made interference with
climate: a GISS modelE study, Atomos.
Chem.
Phys. Discuss. 6, 12549-12610, 2006,
www.copernicus.org/EGU/acp/acpd/6/12549/acpd-6-12549.pdf.
9.
Hansen, J., The threat to the planet, in July 13 issue of New York
Review of Books, 2006,
pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/2006/2006_Hansen.pdf
(also
pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/2006/2006_Hansen_supplement.pdf).
10.
Hansen, J. Global warming: Connecting the dots from causes to
solutions, presentation at National Press Club,
2007,
www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/dots_feb2007.pdf.
11.
Hansen, J. Scientific reticence and sea level rise, to be submitted
to Environ. Res. Lett., 2007,
www.giss.nasa.gov/~jhansen/preprints/ScientificReticence.pdf.
12.
Hansen, J. Special interests are the big obstacle, The Times
(London), p. 53, March 12, 2007.
13.
Hansen, J. Communicating dangers and opportunities in global warming,
presentation given on Dec. 14, 2006,
at
AGU Fall Meeting. www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/agu_communicating.pdf.
http://oversight.house.gov/documents/20070319105800-43018.pdf
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