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But U.S. success opens door to new arms race, activists say
WASHINGTON -- The unprecedented downing of an errant spy satellite
by a Navy missile makes clear that the Pentagon now has a new weapon in
its arsenal: an anti-satellite missile adapted from the nation's
missile defense program.
While the dramatic intercept occurred well below the altitude where
most satellites orbit, defense and space experts said Wednesday night's
first-shot success strongly suggests that the military has the
technology and know-how to knock out satellites at much higher orbits.
The Pentagon officials said it was 90 percent certain that the
missile had struck its primary target, a tank containing toxic fuel,
but they stressed that the shoot-down did not indicate that the United
States was actively developing an anti-satellite program.
Gen. James Cartwright, vice chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff, said
the effort was not a test of the nation's missile defense system, nor a
show of force to put other countries on notice that the United States
can take down a satellite. "This was uncharted territory," he said. "We
see this as a one-time event."
Nonetheless, many space experts and arms control advocates in the
United States and abroad said the shot had opened the door to more
anti-satellite tests by more nations.
"Demonstrably, we do have an [anti-satellite] capability now," said
David Mosher, a Rand Corp. defense and space expert. "Anyone who
followed national missile defense issues knew we've had that inherent
ability for some time. But now it's real, and we can expect there will
be consequences."
Clay Moltz, a professor of nuclear and space policy at the Naval
Postgraduate School in California, agreed that the satellite's
destruction did not signal a new capability, but said it might have
sent a signal to other countries that could set a bad precedent
Riki Ellison, president and founder of the Missile Defense Advocacy
Alliance, said it was "remarkable" -- and good news -- that the missile
defense system is so easily adaptable. "We now have something that has
the capability, anywhere around the world, to handle a falling
satellite," he said. "The world wasn't really watching it before. This
is much more now known throughout the world that we have this
capability."
The Chinese Communist Party newspaper condemned what it called
Washington's callous attitude toward the weaponizing of space. The
Chinese government -- which conducted a full-scale anti-satellite test
in January 2007 -- asked the United States to release data on its
shoot-down and where the satellite's debris would fall. Defense
Secretary Robert Gates said in Honolulu that some information would be
shared to assure the Chinese and others that any pieces that reach the
surface will not be hazardous.
Many governments accepted the Bush administration's explanation that
the satellite had to be attacked because it was carrying a 1,000-pound
tank of potentially hazardous hydrazine rocket fuel.
Geoffrey Forden, a Massachusetts Institute of Technology researcher
who worked with colleagues to estimate the probability of the hydrazine
harming anyone on Earth, said that if the fuel tank made it through the
atmosphere, there was a 3-in-100 chance that it would land within 100
yards of someone on the ground. But he and his colleagues also
calculated that the tank would be subject to a force of 50 times
gravity (at the surface) as it fell through the atmosphere, and there
was virtually no chance that it would have remained intact.
http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/08053/859546-84.stm
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