Analysts' fears that the economy is falling toward a recession grew stronger Friday as the government reported the biggest employment decline in five years.

The elimination of 63,000 jobs in February was the largest number since March 2003 and marked the second month in a row of job losses. The last time the economy suffered two consecutive months of job losses was in May and June 2003, when the labor market was still struggling to recover from the blows of the 2001 recession.

In Sarasota and Charlotte counties, unemployment rose by half a percentage point in January, the latest figures available. Sarasota's joblessness increased nearly two points in a year, and Charlotte's numbers were up more than 2.5 points.

Manatee County held a little steadier, up just 0.2 points since December, and less than a point since January 2007.

In the three-county region, according to the Florida Agency for Workforce Innovations, there were 46 percent more people out of work than a year ago -- 21,754 versus 14,818.

"I'm not sure it matters in the end if the current conditions pass the litmus test of recession or not," said Sean Snaith, chief economist at the University of Central Florida in Orlando. "We are struggling mightily under the housing market correction, credit market problems and high energy prices."

The state's January jobless rate of 4.6 percent represents 423,000 jobless people out of a labor force of 9.26 million. The rate was a tenth of a point worse than a month earlier and a full point higher than a year ago.

Many seekers, few takers

Mary Helen Kress, president and chief executive of the Suncoast Workforce Board, administers the three state employment offices at Jobs Etc. in Bradenton, Sarasota and Venice.

She says pickings are slim for those seeking work.

"It is just so sad because we don't have that much to offer them, so few companies are hiring right now," Kress said.

During February, she said, her three offices fielded 8,800 job seekers.

"For that number of job seekers, we only have 93 jobs open right now," she said.

Many of the jobs that are available are service jobs such as housekeeping at a motel; health care, such as being a nursing assistant at an assisted living center; and retail sales.

"If we are looking at January, this is the height of our season; it is going to get worse when the season is over," said Nancy Engel, executive director of the Economic Development Council of Manatee County.

In Southwest Florida, the worst is yet to come, since the January-February situation does not yet take into account recently announced layoffs of 300 workers at storm window and door company PGT Inc. in Venice and the upcoming closing of the Wellcraft boat plant in Manatee County, operated by Genmar Holdings, which will eliminate its work force of 225 employees.

And opportunities could be slim for those laid-off workers who hope to get another job in the region.

Kress said she tries to hold monthly job fairs at each of the three Jobs Etc. offices. Last week, she had to cancel the one in Sarasota because no employers cared to participate.

Engel had a more optimistic view.

She has a job fair planned for March 19 at the Manatee Civic Center, and she said she anticipates 60 employers will attend.

"I do know we have some employers looking for manufacturing employees," Engel said. "I know one in particularly looking for electrical technicians and those with soldering skills."

The ripples

While those out of a job are affected the most severely, the economic slump ripples out to affect a variety of businesses.

Robert Beck, founder of Staffing Professionals Inc. of Lakewood Ranch, makes his living finding the right job candidates for employers.

"It has been soft for all of 2007," said Beck, who is also a board member of the Suncoast Workforce Board. "What we are all trying to figure out is, if and when there is going to be a turnaround. We were hoping that was going to happen in late '07."

Is there a light at the end of this tunnel?

"The only good news is that we have already started to take our medicine in terms of policy," said Snaith at UCF. "The Fed is engaged in interest rate cuts and taking other measures to inject liquidity into the credit markets. Then there are the fiscal policies."

He referred primarily to the economic stimulus package passed by Congress in February, which will result in dishing out billions of dollars worth of tax rebate checks directly to consumers starting in May.

And the worsening situation will prompt the Federal Reserve to make a deep cut in a key interest rate at its next meeting March 18, analysts predicted.

"The problem with all these things is there is a lag from when the policy is decided to when it hits the economy," said Snaith.

"We are really going to have to ride out the remainder of the first quarter and then the second quarter until the cavalry arrives."



Staff writer John Hielscher contributed to this report, which also contains information from The Associated Press.