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WASHINGTON — Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's victory in the
Pennsylvania primary Tuesday keeps her on the playing field against
Sen. Barack Obama in the extended World Series of Democratic politics,
but the game for her now becomes harder.
Her finances bleak and Obama still leading in every statistic
despite a few recent stumbles, Clinton's campaign faces a steady uphill
climb as the Democratic Party winds up this historic primary season
with a six-week stretch of contests from Oregon to Puerto Rico.
The next big event: May 6 primaries in Indiana, where Clinton has
another fighting chance, and North Carolina, where she is a big
underdog, en route to the primary season's June 3 windup in Montana and
South Dakota.
"She did what she had to do, shore up her base. And the race goes on
and on and on," said Terry Madonna, director of the Floyd Institute's
Center for Politics and Public Affairs at Franklin and Marshall College
in Lancaster, Pa.
With 99 percent of precincts counted, Clinton had 55 percent of the
vote to Obama's 45 percent. Despite losing the Pennsylvania popular
vote, Obama retained an overall lead of at least 500,000 votes.
The Illinois senator also scored heavily in the delegate hunt to
keep an insurmountable lead in pledged delegates. A preliminary
tabulation showed Clinton gaining at least 66 national convention
delegates to 57 for Obama, with 35 still to be awarded. That gives
Obama 1,705 delegates and Clinton 1,575, according to the AP tally.
Obama also has won nearly twice as many states as Clinton.
And in outspending Clinton by a 3-to-1 ratio, Obama achieved a
breakthrough Tuesday in his bid to become the first African-American
president: He captured the vote of nearly half (48 percent) of white
men in heavily blue-collar Pennsylvania, according to exit polls.
But Clinton gained an exclamation point for her key argument to
300-plus undeclared party officials and so-called superdelegates: Obama
can't win in yet another big state that is vital for the party's hopes
to reclaim the White House in November. Pennsylvania was the last big
northern industrial state where the Illinois senator could have altered
that perception.
Yet Clinton's victory may do little to reverse another widely held
perception: The New York senator's quest has become too quixotic for
her party's good.
For many Democrats, the value in continuing the longest and most
riveting primary contest in recent times is that it gives Obama a trial
run of the attack politics he would face this fall.
Still, many Democrats worry after the campaign's recent display of vitriol that those lessons are coming at a too-steep price.
In her drive to stay on the playing field, Clinton has driven the
razor-sharp action with tactics that could be a playbook for the GOP
campaign this fall if Obama hangs on: branding the Illinois senator a
cultural elitist and fetching up his old associates.
Clinton's critics accused her of playing the politics of fear with
eleventh-hour ads in Pennsylvania featuring video of Osama bin Laden
and the famous Harry Truman quote aimed at Obama: "If you can't stand
the heat, get out of the kitchen."
But her approach worked: Of those Pennsylvanians who decided in the
last week, 58 percent went with Clinton, according to exit polls. And
Democrats can expect to hear more of the same.
Meanwhile, Obama responded negatively himself, thereby joining the
hard-edged politics he decries and leaving tarnish on both Democrats.
Said Madonna: "You begin to see that he's looking more mortal every
week."
A Suffolk University poll reflected the latest damage: One in every
five Democrats said if their candidate didn't win, they'd cast their
ballot for GOP nominee John McCain. An additional 4 percent said they
would join independent Ralph Nader's quadrennial effort.
"I think there's a tremendous fatigue in Democratic Party circles,"
said Simon Rosenberg, who heads the New Democratic Network think-tank
alliance in Washington. "People want this to be over. They're ready to
get on with the general election."
There was a Republican primary Tuesday, but since McCain is the
presumptive nominee, it was viewed as a formality. Mike Huckabee and
Ron Paul were on the ballot with McCain. With 99 percent of the vote
counted, McCain had 73 percent to Paul's 16 and Huckabee's 11.
Once again, women rose up to preserve Clinton's fighting chance: 60
percent of Pennsylvanians who voted were women, almost identical to the
women's vote in Ohio, which rescued Clinton six weeks ago. By contrast,
a little more than half of the voters in Missouri, where Obama won,
were women.
Clinton's main target in the days ahead will be contributors rather
than voters. Her campaign began the month in the red — $10.3 million
owed and $9.3 million on hand, and there's surely more debt and less
cash by now.
Obama, on the other hand, had more than $40 million on hand with a
relatively tiny $663,000 in unpaid bills, giving him an advantage in
the next big day two weeks from now.
Clinton found again in Pennsylvania that it's the economy on
people's minds, and she reached into her diminished treasury to begin
airing an ad in Indiana in which she asserts: "I think this election,
particularly here in Indiana, is about jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs."
Rosenberg, for one, questioned whether Clinton has the capacity even
with a potent message to change an outcome that has seemed set in stone
for close to two months now.
"I don't know that Senator Clinton any longer has the ability to alter the fundamental dynamic in this race," he said.
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