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Buchanan, Jennings race tightens |
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Written by Jeremy Wallace
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Wednesday, 08 November 2006 |
The narrowing of the race to replace Katherine Harris in Congress is catching the attention of national political watchers, who now see the it as one of the most competitive in the country.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report has downgraded Republican chances of holding onto the seat come November from "likely" to a more tenuous "leaning" Republican.
Amy Walter, the Washington, D.C., newsletter's senior editor, says the race is one of the most surprising contests in the nation.
A year ago, she said few people saw the district as being truly competitive because it has always been a Republican seat, and GOP voter registrations greatly outnumber Democratic registrations.
Of the 478,000 registered voters in the district now represented by Harris, 45 percent are registered Republicans, 32 percent are Democrats and the remaining 23 percent aren't registered with either party.
But most political analysts now conclude that the race belongs among the hottest races because of the "political baggage" Republican Vern Buchanan has brought to the race, Walter said.
During a heated primary, Buchanan was forced to repeatedly defend his business record, which one of his primary opponents, Tramm Hudson, repeatedly attacked in a barrage of negative ads.
Buchanan narrowly won the bitter GOP primary with just 32 percent of the vote, another reason Walter has reassessed the district's competitiveness.
Every election cycle, Walter said there seem to be a few races that come out of nowhere to surprise even the most seasoned political watchers. The 13th Congressional District is one of the biggest surprises this year, she said.
Although the race has narrowed considerably during the past year, Buchanan still has to be viewed as the favorite in the battle because of the amount of money he can pour into the race, Walter said.
Buchanan spent more than $2 million of his own money to win the Sept. 5 primary, easily outspending his four primary opponents combined.
If he continues spending, the Longboat Key businessman would have a big advantage with mailers and television advertising over Democrat Christine Jennings, a retired banker.
"If Jennings is defined by Buchanan and the GOP before she has a chance to define herself, it will be much harder for her to sell herself to voters as a credible agent of change," Walter said.
Sorry for later
Democrat Keith Fitzgerald and Republican Laura Benson are already apologizing.
Although the candidates in the District 69 state Legislature race say they don't intend to go negative, the two rivals have already talked to each other to warn the other that attack pieces may still appear.
"Some of it we can't control," said Benson, a Sarasota County School Board member who easily won her Sept. 5 primary over Republican David Mills.
She said the district, which includes parts of Sarasota and Manatee counties, is considered one of the most competitive in the state. Both parties are likely to make an extra effort to win. That means outside groups potentially putting out smear ads.
Benson said that after a very bitter primary season, it's important that the race has a touch of class and dignity -- something she said her primary battle lacked. During the primary, Mills accused Benson of being a former pole dancer. Mills and Benson have not talked since the primary.
Fitzgerald said Benson doesn't need to worry about him making outrageous personal claims like Mills made.
"We made an informal agreement to try to take the high road," said Fitzgerald, who is a New College of Florida political science professor.
Rodriguez aids Crist
Republican gubernatorial candidate Charlie Crist will have extra motivation to spend time in the region during the last six weeks of the campaign.
That's because one of Crist's statewide co-chairs is Sarasota County developer Henry Rodriguez, a big-money player in regional politics.
Rodriguez said he hopes his position will bring Crist to the area more often. Already, Rodriguez said he has convinced the campaign to make a fundraising stop in Sarasota on Oct. 7, instead of just doing one in Tampa that weekend. He said he's working to get Crist in the area later, nearer to the Nov. 7 election.
Registration
deadline coming
The deadline to register to vote in time for the Nov. 7 general election is fast approaching. In order to be eligible to vote, people must register by Oct. 10. For information, call the Supervisor of Elections office. In Sarasota County, 861-8600; in Manatee County, 741-3823; and in Charlotte County, 637-2232.
This week's political events
Today. The Manatee County Republican Party's Executive Committee meets at 7 p.m. Manatee Central Library, 1301 Barcarrota Blvd. W., Bradenton.
Tuesday. The North Port Republican Club meets at 6:30 p.m. to talk about the proposed bond issue for the water and sewer district. The meeting will be at the George Mullen Center, 4956 City Center Blvd., North Port. For more information, call 426-4628.
The Manatee County Democratic Party's Executive Committee meets at 6:30 p.m. at the Manatee Central Library, 1301 Barcarrota Blvd. W., Bradenton. For information, call 744-0277.
Thursday. Congressional candidate Vern Buchanan speaks to the Longboat Key Republican Club at the Bird Key Yacht Club, 301 Bird Key Drive, Sarasota.
The Manatee County Republican Party holds a rally in downtown Bradenton to support candidates running for office. The event runs from 3 p.m. to 7 p.m. at the Manatee GOP Victory Headquarters, 615 15th St. W.
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